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Introduction

Historical Results and Commentary

Portfolio Analysis

November 11, 2004

Holdings

	11-Nov
1	F
2	NBG
3	YHOO
4	NKE
5	BA
6	VRSN
7	JDSU
8	CAT
9	JNJ
10	NSM
11	CA
12	FNF
13	MWD
14	TKC
15	HMC
16	CRYP
17	X
18	AAPL
19	COP
20	ACH

Performance of Individual Stocks For last 3 months:

11-Nov
FNF	8.94%
COP	19.14%
CAT	25.32%
NKE	21.19%
BA	9.73%
VRSN	66.84%
JDSU	2.59%
YHOO	37.82%
JNJ	8.77%
NSM	20.65%
CA	25.70%
F	0.91%
MWD	9.52%
TKC	53.72%
HMC	6.12%
CRYP	58.84%
X	19.20%
AAPL	78.27%
NBG	40.00%
ACH	42.93%

Total Increase (Decrease) since last quarter: 27.81

Additions:  None

Subtractions: None

Commentary:  Well, a quarterly gain of 27.81% isn’t too bad. The S&P 500 is up 9.08%, so the portfolio has done quite well relative to its primary benchmark.

My commentary this quarter is focused on playing around with some basic valuation models. The question I am trying to answer is: what valuation multiples are appropriate for what combinations of earnings growth and discount rates. To start, let’s consider earnings growth to be a function of a company’s return on equity (ROE) and the percentage of earnings that are reinvested (1 – dividend portion). The following shows what I view to be the long-term characteristics of a hypothetical stock:

• ROE: 12%
• Dividend payout = 40% of earnings

Now, let’s assume we have a typical yield curve for bonds, and we estimate a sustainable long-term return on government bonds to be around 6% per year. Let’s also assume an equity risk premium of 300 basis points above the risk free government bond rate. The following are the ugly results of running this simulation for 100 years (see appendix 1):

Current Price/Book Value: 5.9

Current P/E ratio: 82.15

Oh boy, something is really strange. Before running this test, I never equated a long term ROE of 12 percent with a current PE of 82! But, for better or for worse, that is what this simulation shows. So, what would be the growth rate necessary to achieve a PE ratio of 20? Well, using this model, a PE of 20 would be accomplished by a growth rate of 0! However, at a growth rate approaching 0, the P/BV ratio approaches infinity! So, clearly this is not a viable model either.

So, what is a viable model? Well, the long term growth rate of the US economy is probably something like 2.5 percent per year. Given that large American companies are increasingly exposed to international markets and business, and that many foreign markets have a higher long-term growth potential than the US, perhaps a sustainable growth rate of the earnings of US companies is something like 4 percent. With a dividend payout of 40% of earnings, then such a growth rate corresponds to a ROE of 6.67% in perpetuity. So, if we plug in a ROE of 6.67% into the model, what happens to the other variables[1]? First, let’s set the discount rate. If we are using a 4% growth rate for earnings, we are excluding inflation. So, the discount rate to use might be the long term TIPS rate, which is adjusted for inflation. This is a fairly new type of security, but let’s assume the long term return on a 20 year TIPS security is a premium of 300 basis points over inflation (3%). So, we can add 300 basis points to whatever risk premium we set for an equity investment. The following table shows what happens to PEs and PBVs as equity risk premiums change.

Equity Risk Premium (100s of bps)	PE	PBV
0	284.2	11.37
1	165.8	6.74
2	108.5	4.34
3	75.5	3.02
4	56.1	2.24
5	44	1.76
6	36	1.44
7	30.5	1.21
8	26.4	1.05
9	23.3	0.933
10	20.9	0.837

Given the above table, it is hard to estimate the proper risk premiums for typical large-cap equities. Perhaps it is something like 4-8%, but it is hard to say, as few companies exhibit the PE to book value relationship implied above. Here we encounter one of the great ironies of the stock market. According to this model, the higher the equity risk premium, the lower the multiple to which the stock should trade. However, in reality, we see the opposite effect, because exuberant growth forecasts often overshadow this trend by pumping up the present value of high growth companies to the point where this fundamental relationship is reversed! Also, this simple model implies that there should be some correlation between P/Es and P/BVs. Does the evidence from the market support this? The following scatter plot shows PEs vs. P/BVs for companies traded on the American stock markets with a market capitalization of $20 billion or higher[2]:

There are two things this chart shows that are important:

1. There is only a weak relationship between PEs and PBVs.
2. The slope of the regression line in the above chart is much lower than the slope from the theoretical relationship between PEs and PBVs derived from playing around with the theoretical valuation model.

This second point is especially important. Essentially, what this is implying is that the market anticipates there being a period of negative earnings growth sometime in the near future. Why is this? Appendix 2 shows a valuation model with a gradual reduction in ROE (and the corresponding earnings growth) from the current level of 19.7%[3] to a sustainable level of 6%. The model shows that in 8 years time, the company will begin to suffer the first of 7 consecutive years of negative earnings growth, until it bottoms out at a the sustainable level of 6 percent for the rest of the model. However, even the model shown in appendix 2 does not correspond with current market expectations, as given by the regression equation on the chart above. This is because the model in appendix 2 shows a P/BV of 3.20 and a P/E of 27.09. The chart above shows that a company with a P/BV of 3.20 should have a P/E of 17.4. Such a relationship can only be accomplished by creating a period of negative ROEs in the near future. Appendix 3 shows one hypothetical model that allows P/Es and P/BVs to fit on the regression line in the chart above. It also implies a reduction in earnings growth sometime over the next 10 years.

So, what does all of this rambling imply? I am not quite sure, but these are some of my thoughts:

1. The current rate of earnings growth is unsustainable, unless there has been a fundamental shift in the growth rate of the US economy
2. The market anticipates a jagged oscillation in the profitability of major American companies.
3. A stable, safe, and slowly growing economy (or stock within such an economy) merits a much higher P/E ratio (both in absolute terms and relative to P/BVs) than are currently visible in the US market, or is present in the historical record.

I posit that the evolution of stock markets over time, and the companies that reside in them, is a process whereby volatility and change decreases over time. This meshes well with the qualitative observance that young stock markets seem to be more prone to violent upswings and crashes than their more mature counterparts. This is probably because older stock markets are more heavily anchored by old and established companies, and also because younger stock markets tend to exist in countries with more dynamic and higher growth, creating a larger speculative component in the prices of equities. Therefore, as stock markets evolve over time, one would expect P/Es to rise as equity risk premiums fall. To some extent we have seen this in the American exchanges. So, at the risk of proclaiming a brave new world, I would say we will see and tolerate higher PE ratios in the American exchanges going forward. This is despite the fact that the long term growth rate of the US economy, and companies operating in it, is lower than it was during periods of lower PEs!

Appendix 1: ROE=12%, 40% dividend payout, 9% discount rate, run for 100 years:

Year	Book Value of Equity	ROE	Earnings	Earnings Growth	Dividends	Reinvested Earnings	CF To Equity	PE	Stock Price	Dividends	Discount rate	LT Bond	Equity Risk Premium	Present Value of Yearly Earnings
0	1	0.12	0.12	7.20%	0.048	0.072	0.12	82.2	5.91480495	0.118296	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.12
1	1.072	0.12	0.12864	7.20%	0.051456	0.077184	0.12864	82.2	6.34067091	0.126813	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.118018
2	1.149184	0.12	0.13790208	7.20%	0.055161	0.082741248	0.13790208	82.2	6.79719922	0.135944	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.116069
3	1.231925248	0.12	0.14783103	7.20%	0.059132	0.088698618	0.14783103	82.2	7.28659756	0.145732	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.114153
4	1.320623866	0.12	0.15847486	7.20%	0.06339	0.095084918	0.158474864	82.2	7.81123259	0.156225	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.112268
5	1.415708784	0.12	0.16988505	7.20%	0.067954	0.101931032	0.169885054	82.2	8.37364133	0.167473	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.110414
6	1.517639817	0.12	0.18211678	7.20%	0.072847	0.109270067	0.182116778	82.2	8.97654351	0.179531	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.10859
7	1.626909883	0.12	0.19522919	7.20%	0.078092	0.117137512	0.195229186	82.2	9.62285464	0.192457	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.106797
8	1.744047395	0.12	0.20928569	7.20%	0.083714	0.125571412	0.209285687	82.2	10.3157002	0.206314	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.105033
9	1.869618808	0.12	0.22435426	7.20%	0.089742	0.134612554	0.224354257	82.2	11.0584306	0.221169	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.103299
10	2.004231362	0.12	0.24050776	7.20%	0.096203	0.144304658	0.240507763	82.2	11.8546376	0.237093	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.101593
11	2.14853602	0.12	0.25782432	7.20%	0.10313	0.154694593	0.257824322	82.2	12.7081715	0.254163	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.099915
12	2.303230613	0.12	0.27638767	7.20%	0.110555	0.165832604	0.276387674	82.2	13.6231598	0.272463	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.098265
13	2.469063217	0.12	0.29628759	7.20%	0.118515	0.177772552	0.296287586	82.2	14.6040274	0.292081	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.096643
14	2.646835769	0.12	0.31762029	7.20%	0.127048	0.190572175	0.317620292	82.2	15.6555173	0.31311	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.095047
15	2.837407944	0.12	0.34048895	7.20%	0.136196	0.204293372	0.340488953	82.2	16.7827146	0.335654	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.093477
16	3.041701316	0.12	0.36500416	7.20%	0.146002	0.219002495	0.365004158	82.2	17.99107	0.359821	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.091934
17	3.260703811	0.12	0.39128446	7.20%	0.156514	0.234770674	0.391284457	82.2	19.2864271	0.385729	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.090415
18	3.495474485	0.12	0.41945694	7.20%	0.167783	0.251674163	0.419456938	82.2	20.6750498	0.413501	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.088922
19	3.747148648	0.12	0.44965784	7.20%	0.179863	0.269794703	0.449657838	82.2	22.1636534	0.443273	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.087454
20	4.016943351	0.12	0.4820332	7.20%	0.192813	0.289219921	0.482033202	82.2	23.7594364	0.475189	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.08601
21	4.306163272	0.12	0.51673959	7.20%	0.206696	0.310043756	0.516739593	82.2	25.4701159	0.509402	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.084589
22	4.616207028	0.12	0.55394484	7.20%	0.221578	0.332366906	0.553944843	82.2	27.3039642	0.546079	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.083192
23	4.948573934	0.12	0.59382887	7.20%	0.237532	0.356297323	0.593828872	82.2	29.2698496	0.585397	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.081819
24	5.304871257	0.12	0.63658455	7.20%	0.254634	0.381950731	0.636584551	82.2	31.3772788	0.627546	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.080467
25	5.686821988	0.12	0.68241864	7.20%	0.272967	0.409451183	0.682418639	82.2	33.6364429	0.672729	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.079139
26	6.096273171	0.12	0.73155278	7.20%	0.292621	0.438931668	0.73155278	82.2	36.0582668	0.721165	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.077832
27	6.535204839	0.12	0.78422458	7.20%	0.31369	0.470534748	0.784224581	82.2	38.654462	0.773089	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.076546
28	7.005739588	0.12	0.84068875	7.20%	0.336276	0.50441325	0.840688751	82.2	41.4375832	0.828752	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.075282
29	7.510152838	0.12	0.90121834	7.20%	0.360487	0.540731004	0.901218341	82.2	44.4210892	0.888422	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.074039
30	8.050883842	0.12	0.96610606	7.20%	0.386442	0.579663637	0.966106061	82.2	47.6194076	0.952388	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.072817
31	8.630547479	0.12	1.0356657	7.20%	0.414266	0.621399418	1.035665697	82.2	51.048005	1.02096	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.071614
32	9.251946897	0.12	1.11023363	7.20%	0.444093	0.666140177	1.110233628	82.2	54.7234613	1.094469	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.070431
33	9.918087074	0.12	1.19017045	7.20%	0.476068	0.714102269	1.190170449	82.2	58.6635506	1.173271	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.069268
34	10.63218934	0.12	1.27586272	7.20%	0.510345	0.765517633	1.275862721	82.2	62.8873262	1.257747	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.068124
35	11.39770698	0.12	1.36772484	7.20%	0.54709	0.820634902	1.367724837	82.2	67.4152137	1.348304	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.066999
36	12.21834188	0.12	1.46620103	7.20%	0.58648	0.879720615	1.466201025	82.2	72.2691091	1.445382	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.065893
37	13.09806249	0.12	1.5717675	7.20%	0.628707	0.9430605	1.571767499	82.2	77.4724849	1.54945	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.064805
38	14.04112299	0.12	1.68493476	7.20%	0.673974	1.010960855	1.684934759	82.2	83.0505038	1.66101	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.063735
39	15.05208385	0.12	1.80625006	7.20%	0.7225	1.083750037	1.806250062	82.2	89.0301401	1.780603	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.062682
40	16.13583389	0.12	1.93630007	7.20%	0.77452	1.16178004	1.936300066	82.2	95.4403102	1.908806	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.061647
41	17.29761393	0.12	2.07571367	7.20%	0.830285	1.245428203	2.075713671	82.2	102.312013	2.04624	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.060629
42	18.54304213	0.12	2.22516506	7.20%	0.890066	1.335099033	2.225165055	82.2	109.678477	2.19357	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.059628
43	19.87814116	0.12	2.38537694	7.20%	0.954151	1.431226164	2.385376939	82.2	117.575328	2.351507	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.058643
44	21.30936732	0.12	2.55712408	7.20%	1.02285	1.534274447	2.557124079	82.2	126.040751	2.520815	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.057675
45	22.84364177	0.12	2.74123701	7.20%	1.096495	1.644742208	2.741237013	82.2	135.115686	2.702314	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.056722
46	24.48838398	0.12	2.93860608	7.20%	1.175442	1.763163647	2.938606078	82.2	144.844015	2.89688	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.055786
47	26.25154763	0.12	3.15018572	7.20%	1.260074	1.890111429	3.150185715	82.2	155.272784	3.105456	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.054864
48	28.14165906	0.12	3.37699909	7.20%	1.3508	2.026199452	3.376999087	82.2	166.452424	3.329048	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.053958
49	30.16785851	0.12	3.62014302	7.20%	1.448057	2.172085813	3.620143021	82.2	178.436999	3.56874	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.053067
50	32.33994432	0.12	3.88079332	7.20%	1.552317	2.328475991	3.880793318	82.2	191.284463	3.825689	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.052191
51	34.66842031	0.12	4.16021044	7.20%	1.664084	2.496126262	4.160210437	82.2	205.056944	4.101139	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.051329
52	37.16454657	0.12	4.45974559	7.20%	1.783898	2.675847353	4.459745589	82.2	219.821044	4.396421	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.050481
53	39.84039393	0.12	4.78084727	7.20%	1.912339	2.868508363	4.780847271	82.2	235.648159	4.712963	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.049648
54	42.70890229	0.12	5.12506827	7.20%	2.050027	3.075040965	5.125068275	82.2	252.614827	5.052297	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.048828
55	45.78394325	0.12	5.49407319	7.20%	2.197629	3.296443914	5.49407319	82.2	270.803094	5.416062	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.048022
56	49.08038717	0.12	5.88964646	7.20%	2.355859	3.533787876	5.88964646	82.2	290.300917	5.806018	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.047229
57	52.61417504	0.12	6.31370101	7.20%	2.52548	3.788220603	6.313701005	82.2	311.202583	6.224052	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.046449
58	56.40239565	0.12	6.76828748	7.20%	2.707315	4.060972487	6.768287478	82.2	333.609169	6.672183	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.045682
59	60.46336813	0.12	7.25560418	7.20%	2.902242	4.353362506	7.255604176	82.2	357.629029	7.152581	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.044927
60	64.81673064	0.12	7.77800768	7.20%	3.111203	4.666804606	7.778007677	82.2	383.37832	7.667566	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.044185
61	69.48353525	0.12	8.33802423	7.20%	3.33521	5.002814538	8.338024229	82.2	410.981559	8.219631	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.043456
62	74.48634978	0.12	8.93836197	7.20%	3.575345	5.363017184	8.938361974	82.2	440.572231	8.811445	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.042738
63	79.84936697	0.12	9.58192404	7.20%	3.83277	5.749154422	9.581924036	82.2	472.293431	9.445869	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.042032
64	85.59852139	0.12	10.2718226	7.20%	4.108729	6.16309354	10.27182257	82.2	506.298558	10.12597	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.041338
65	91.76161493	0.12	11.0113938	7.20%	4.404558	6.606836275	11.01139379	82.2	542.752055	10.85504	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.040656
66	98.3684512	0.12	11.8042141	7.20%	4.721686	7.082528487	11.80421414	82.2	581.830203	11.6366	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.039984
67	105.4509797	0.12	12.6541176	7.20%	5.061647	7.592470538	12.65411756	82.2	623.721977	12.47444	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.039324
68	113.0434502	0.12	13.565214	7.20%	5.426086	8.139128416	13.56521403	82.2	668.62996	13.3726	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.038675
69	121.1825786	0.12	14.5419094	7.20%	5.816764	8.725145662	14.54190944	82.2	716.771317	14.33543	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.038036
70	129.9077243	0.12	15.5889269	7.20%	6.235571	9.35335615	15.58892692	82.2	768.378851	15.36758	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.037408
71	139.2610805	0.12	16.7113297	7.20%	6.684532	10.02679779	16.71132965	82.2	823.702129	16.47404	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.03679
72	149.2878783	0.12	17.9145454	7.20%	7.165818	10.74872723	17.91454539	82.2	883.008682	17.66017	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.036182
73	160.0366055	0.12	19.2043927	7.20%	7.681757	11.52263559	19.20439266	82.2	946.585307	18.93171	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.035585
74	171.5592411	0.12	20.5871089	7.20%	8.234844	12.35226536	20.58710893	82.2	1014.73945	20.29479	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.034997
75	183.9115064	0.12	22.0693808	7.20%	8.827752	13.24162846	22.06938077	82.2	1087.80069	21.75601	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.034419
76	197.1531349	0.12	23.6583762	7.20%	9.46335	14.19502571	23.65837619	82.2	1166.12234	23.32245	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.033851
77	211.3481606	0.12	25.3617793	7.20%	10.14471	15.21706756	25.36177927	82.2	1250.08315	25.00166	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.033292
78	226.5652282	0.12	27.1878274	7.20%	10.87513	16.31269643	27.18782738	82.2	1340.08913	26.80178	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.032742
79	242.8779246	0.12	29.145351	7.20%	11.65814	17.48721057	29.14535095	82.2	1436.57555	28.73151	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.032201
80	260.3651352	0.12	31.2438162	7.20%	12.49753	18.74628973	31.24381622	82.2	1540.00899	30.80018	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.03167
81	279.1114249	0.12	33.493371	7.20%	13.39735	20.09602259	33.49337099	82.2	1650.88964	33.01779	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.031147
82	299.2074475	0.12	35.9048937	7.20%	14.36196	21.54293622	35.9048937	82.2	1769.75369	35.39507	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.030632
83	320.7503837	0.12	38.490046	7.20%	15.39602	23.09402763	38.49004605	82.2	1897.17596	37.94352	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.030127
84	343.8444114	0.12	41.2613294	7.20%	16.50453	24.75679762	41.26132936	82.2	2033.77263	40.67545	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.029629
85	368.601209	0.12	44.2321451	7.20%	17.69286	26.53928705	44.23214508	82.2	2180.20426	43.60409	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.02914
86	395.140496	0.12	47.4168595	7.20%	18.96674	28.45011571	47.41685952	82.2	2337.17896	46.74358	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.028659
87	423.5906117	0.12	50.8308734	7.20%	20.33235	30.49852404	50.83087341	82.2	2505.45585	50.10912	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.028185
88	454.0891358	0.12	54.4906963	7.20%	21.79628	32.69441778	54.49069629	82.2	2685.84867	53.71697	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.02772
89	486.7835536	0.12	58.4140264	7.20%	23.36561	35.04841586	58.41402643	82.2	2879.22977	57.5846	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.027262
90	521.8319694	0.12	62.6198363	7.20%	25.04793	37.5719018	62.61983633	82.2	3086.53432	61.73069	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.026812
91	559.4038712	0.12	67.1284645	7.20%	26.85139	40.27707873	67.12846454	82.2	3308.76479	66.1753	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.026369
92	599.6809499	0.12	71.961714	7.20%	28.78469	43.1770284	71.96171399	82.2	3546.99585	70.93992	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.025934
93	642.8579783	0.12	77.1429574	7.20%	30.85718	46.28577444	77.1429574	82.2	3802.37956	76.04759	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.025505
94	689.1437528	0.12	82.6972503	7.20%	33.0789	49.6183502	82.69725033	82.2	4076.15088	81.52302	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.025084
95	738.762103	0.12	88.6514524	7.20%	35.46058	53.19087141	88.65145236	82.2	4369.63375	87.39267	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.02467
96	791.9529744	0.12	95.0343569	7.20%	38.01374	57.02061416	95.03435693	82.2	4684.24738	93.68495	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.024263
97	848.9735885	0.12	101.876831	7.20%	40.75073	61.12609837	101.8768306	82.2	5021.51319	100.4303	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.023862
98	910.0996869	0.12	109.211962	7.20%	43.68478	65.52717746	109.2119624	82.2	5383.06214	107.6612	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.023468
99	975.6268644	0.12	117.075224	7.20%	46.83009	70.24513423	117.0752237	82.2	5770.64261	115.4129	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.02308
100	1045.871999	0.12	125.50464	7.20%	50.20186	75.3027839	125.5046398	82.2	6186.12888	123.7226	1.09	0.06	0.03	0.022699
													SUM=	5.914805

Appendix 2: ROE= variable, 40% dividend payout, 8.42% discount rate, run for 100 years

Year	Book Value of Equity	ROE	Earnings	Earnings Growth	Dividends	Reinvested Earnings	CF To Equity	PE	Price/BV	Dividends	Discount rate	TIPS rate	Equity Risk Premium	Cumulative Discount Rate	Present Value of Earnings
0	1	0.197	0.197	6.14%	0.0788	0.1182	0.197	27.09	3.202461	0.0788	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1	0.197
1	1.1182	0.187	0.2091034	6.14%	0.08364136	0.12546204	0.2091034			0.083641	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.0842	0.192864232
2	1.243662	0.177	0.220128181	5.27%	0.08805127	0.132076909	0.220128181			0.088051	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.17548964	0.187265097
3	1.3757389	0.167	0.229748404	4.37%	0.09189936	0.137849043	0.229748404			0.091899	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.274465868	0.180270347
4	1.513588	0.157	0.237633315	3.43%	0.09505333	0.142579989	0.237633315			0.095053	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.381775894	0.171976741
5	1.656168	0.147	0.243456693	2.45%	0.09738268	0.146074016	0.243456693			0.097383	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.498121424	0.162507984
6	1.802242	0.137	0.246907153	1.42%	0.09876286	0.148144292	0.246907153			0.098763	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.624263248	0.152011784
7	1.9503863	0.127	0.247699059	0.32%	0.09907962	0.148619435	0.247699059			0.09908	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.761026213	0.140656088
8	2.0990057	0.117	0.24558367	-0.85%	0.09823347	0.147350202	0.24558367			0.098233	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	1.909304621	0.128624666
9	2.2463559	0.107	0.240360084	-2.13%	0.09614403	0.14421605	0.240360084			0.096144	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	2.07006807	0.116112164
10	2.390572	0.097	0.231885482	-3.53%	0.09275419	0.139131289	0.231885482			0.092754	1.0842	0.0242	0.06	2.244367801	0.103318842
11	2.5297033	0.087	0.220084184	-5.09%	0.08803367	0.13205051	0.220084184			0.088034