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February 11, 2001

 

 

Holdings

 

 

11-Feb

1

PFE

2

UN

3

BBV

4

NKE

5

LLY

6

MMM

7

IBM

8

CAT

9

JNJ

10

NSM

11

MCD

12

FNF

13

MSFT

14

BRK-A

15

AMGN

16

WMT

17

X

18

AAPL

19

P

20

WB

 

 

Performance of Individual Stocks For last 3 months

 

11-Feb

 

FNF

43.38%

P

-7.78%

CAT

21.19%

NKE

26.83%

LLY

-10.54%

MMM

17.20%

IBM

20.56%

BBV

17.02%

JNJ

0.93%

DELL

2.17%

MCD

-9.40%

PFE

2.28%

MSFT

-12.25%

BRK-A

11.58%

AMGN

12.39%

WMT

15.51%

NOK

-26.82%

AAPL

0.31%

UN

2.02%

WB

1.50%

 

 

Total Increase (Decrease) since last quarter: 6.40%

Additions:  NSM, X

Subtractions: DELL, NOK

Commentary: 

On the one hand, tech is falling, so it may still be a good time to own DELL or NOK.  However, since I still hold IBM, AAPL, and MSFT, I feel I need to lessen my tech exposure.  After all, the bottom could still be a long way off.  In addition, NSM seems to have bottomed and should see a cyclical expansion of its business, so I think NSM is a better tech stock to be in right now rather than DELL or NOK.  X is going to benefit from improved cyclical factors over the next decade, and perhaps from high growth rates in the international steel business.

Though major changes in society do not always lead to profitable investments, many profitable investment opportunities are created and shaped by large-scale changes in the way human beings organize their lives and what material goods or services they want, need, and use.  For a long term investor such as myself, there may be some value in trying to anticipate the way the world will evolve over the next 50 or 60 years.  From these large-scale changes, one may be able to anticipate or extract profitable investment opportunities.  The following is a list of some of the major changes that I believe we will see through the year 2053 (no, not 2050.  In case you haven’t realized yet, it is a pet peeve of mine not to use standard numerical conventions when at all possible).  Here are 20 things that probably are going to happen

 

  1. Population growth rates will be quite high in many regions of the world, especially Africa, South Asia, and parts of the Middle East.
  2. The world will have a growing demand for energy.  Fossil fuels will be the only plausible solution to this demand, though alternative energy will receive increased funding and support from governments and industry alike.
  3. Other non-renewable resources (or resources that take a long time to renew) such as minerals and some fishing stocks will become depleted.
  4. China will emerge as the world’s largest economy by 2053.  Accompanying this rise in economic status will be shifting regional power structures in East Asia to reflect the importance of China as a trading and military power.
  5. The divorce rate in middle income countries such as Turkey and Mexico will rise substantially.  This will be symptomatic of the overall dissolution of the traditional nuclear family structure in affluent regions of the world.
  6. There will be a surplus of single male bachelors in many parts of the world such as China and parts of India due to the practice of female infanticide. 
  7. Access to clean drinking water will become an increasingly important issue in many countries, especially those with lax environmental regulations. 
  8. The English language will become the lingua franca of global business and increasingly of global culture.
  9. Natural disasters will play an increasingly devastating role in our lives as more and more people migrate to danger areas such as costal zones.  One major city in the developing world (Istanbul and Mexico City are likely candidates) will be severely damaged by a major earthquake.
  10. The global climate system will continue to warm, creating a multitude of climatic changes that will require a reorganization of human systems that are dependent on the weather.
  11. Increased urbanization in many cities will create pressure for housing and urban services.
  12. Advances in biology and medicine will create the capability to fundamentally impact human life, from the selection of genes in embryos, to the creation of cures for diseases.
  13. ‘Lifestyle diseases’ and ‘lifestyle disorders’ such as obesity, depression, ADD, and drug addiction will play a major factor in many developed societies
  14. AIDS will decimate Africa.
  15. War and corruption will decimate Africa
  16. The gap between rich and poor will expand exponentially in the USA and many other free-market capitalist societies
  17. Changes in communications technology will make access to information extremely easy for people with access to globally networked computers
  18. As more and more rich people die, non-profit organizations and trusts will get more and more money, playing an increasing role in the functioning of civil society
  19. Eastern Europe will achieve developmental parity with Western Europe
  20. The Red Sox will still not win a World Series ;)
  21.  

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